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Improved planting progress, international news pressure corn and wheat markets; soybeans continue to shine – Agweek

Editor’s Note: Catch Randy Martinson every Friday after the market closes at Agweek Market Wrap on agweek.com.

The first week of June saw strong trading pressure. Wheat hit the biggest hit on all three exchanges above $ 1 while corn cut about 50 cents from its price. Soybeans were the best performers, closing with losses ranging from 17 to 35 percent, all of which came on Friday, June 3rd.

Wheat was under pressure from several items, the biggest of which came from the fact that Ukraine is about to re-enter the wheat and corn export market. Russia has been pushing hard to bring Ukraine back into the export game, so much so that Russia has agreed to allow safe passage through the Black Sea. Russia has cleared mines at two ports and Ukraine hopes to clear mines on the way to ports. Ukrainian officials estimate it will take six months to complete the work, but Turkey estimates it will take five weeks to clear the way.

The United Nations is in favor of bringing Ukraine back online and plans a meeting between Russian and Turkish officials. It is interesting that Ukraine is not invited to the meeting. This just looks like the fox is guarding the chicken coop.

Wheat pullback has been heavy due to losses of more than 1 on most contracts. Looks like the top part is in the wheat? Maybe just how many acres were planted through such market sorting for the short term. In the long run, not all acres will be planted with spring wheat. And because of the poorly rated winter wheat crop, the United States is likely to show a large production decline in 2022. It will be wheat friendly in the long run, but without at least some improvement in exports, it will be difficult for wheat to rise to the top. Current height

Maize has also seen heavy pressure, mostly due to good planting progress and improved weather conditions. Planting in most large maize producing states is above the five-year average. Only North Dakota, Minnesota and Pennsylvania lag behind in planting progress. And it could be argued that Minnesota and Pennsylvania formed this week. This leaves only North Dakota behind, and most likely the state will see a significant increase in corn planting.

Soybeans have been the bright spot. Strong demands and the thought that the acreage will not grow as expected in March have been supported. There is a lack of export news but the last few weeks have seen a few export sales announcements. China was and bought soybeans and Pakistan also bought a jug of US soybeans. Both of these sales occurred when soybeans were at or near contract height. Tight supply and strong end user demand as well as keep the foundation level strong.

The Environmental Protection Agency and the White House have finally released their biofuels mandates for 2020, 2021 and 2022. No one really thinks about 2020 or 2021 because those years are already in the book, but they are looking at 2022. The mandate for 2022 is set at 20.63 billion gallons, of which 15 million gallons will be ethanol and 5.63 million gallons will be advanced biofuels, of which 2.76 million gallons will be biomass diesel. This is in line with December estimates of 20.77 million gallons. It is friendly to both corn and soybeans.

More grains have started from the second week of June. The report confirms that Russia is once again attacking Ukraine’s grain lifts (which will probably make it harder for Ukraine to accept Russian aid for reserve exports).

Light support has come from the expectation that producers are starting to convert spring wheat and maize land into next season’s crops.

The June 6 crop progress was negative for the crop as planting progress was ahead of expectations and crop ratings were faster than expected. As of June 5, 94% of the country’s corn was planted vs. 86% last week and 92% for a five-year average. It was 1% better than expected by the trade. Again, the only states showing problems with planting are Minnesota with 93% planting vs. 82% and average 96% last week, North Dakota 81% planting vs. 56% last week and 92% average, and Pennsylvania 79% planting vs. 63% last week. And 84% on average.

Probably 7% (546,000 acres) in Minnesota and 19% (684,000 acres) in North Dakota will not be planted. Martinson AG still expects North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota to plant 1 million to 1.5 million less than expected.

On the reverse side, corn is planted in that excellent condition. The first crop condition rating for maize came in at 73% good / excellent, 1% higher at this time last year and 5% above expectations.

Progress in soybean planting continues to lag behind. As of Sunday night, 78% of the country had planted soybeans vs. 66% last week and an average of 79%. The only states lagging behind in planting progress are North Dakota 41% planting vs. 23% last week and 85% average, Minnesota 72% planting vs. 55% last week and 90% average, and South Dakota 77% planting vs. 61% last week and 79 % Average. North Dakota (4.1 million trees left) and Minnesota (2.2 million left) have 6.3 million acres out of 20 million planted. The last date of planting for crop insurance purposes is 10 June.

Winter wheat harvesting is slow. As of Sunday, 5% of winter wheat was bins vs. 0% last week and averaged 6%. Harvesting has slowed down due to recent rains. So far the yield has been disappointing. The condition of winter wheat crop has improved from 1% to 30%.

Hard Red Spring wheat plantings were estimated to be 82% complete vs. 73% last week and 97% average. As expected, the two lagging states are Minnesota 65% planting vs. 53% last week and 98% average and North Dakota 74% planting vs. 59% last week and 97% average. A total of 2 million acres of spring remain to be planted in the United States, 1.4 million in North Dakota and 567,000 in Minnesota. Like maize, growers have begun to convert acres of land into next-season crops.

The progress of barley planting is also behind the five-year average. As of June 5, 91% of the country’s barley crop was planted vs. 85% last week and an average of 97%. North Dakota producers planted 75% (22% behind the average) while Minnesota producers planted 60% (38% behind the average). This leaves 264,600 acres of barley unchanged in the United States, with 185,000 acres left to be planted in North Dakota and 20,000 acres left to be planted in Minnesota.

Progress of sunflower planting is estimated to be 50% average vs. 33% complete. North Dakota is reporting 67% average vs. 33% planting progress.

The weather forecast has become a little more friendly. Rainfall has been completed since the North Plains forecast but the next five to seven days are expected to be dry and warm. It is negative short term because it will help keep rolling rolling. The friendly part of the forecast comes in the six-to-10-day and eight-to-14-day forecasts as it starts a warm, dry trend.

Traders began positioning before the June 10 crop production report. Initial estimates are only called for minor changes from previous reports. The biggest question for this report is, how much will the USDA increase soybean exports of the old crop?

The cattle closed with strong gains in the first week of June and that support spread to the second week, which gave the cattle more strength. Cash holds a strong premium on the futures market and now that June delivery is underway, the two seem to be migrating towards each other. It has a well-performing stock market and tight supply as well as helped the cattle make a decent recovery.

Upcoming reports and market moving items include the USDA’s June Crop Production Report, scheduled for June 10 (after the deadline in this column). Grain will be closed for June 19-20 Juntinth. The July option expires on June 24. The first notice day for the July Future will be June 30th. The USDA will report their planted acreage and release their quarterly grain stock estimates on June 30.

“The risk of loss in trading futures and / or options is substantial and every investor and / or trader must consider whether it is a viable investment. Past performance, whether guided by real or simulated historical tests of strategy, is not indicative of future results.”




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